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The organization looks forward to the semiconductor industry in 2025: the AI ​ ​ replacement tide leads the growth, and the semiconductor ETF(512480) may usher in new development opportunities. On December 13, the semiconductor ETF(512480) closed down by 1.38%, with a turnover of 1.671 billion yuan. The constituent stocks are mixed, and Zhaoyi Innovation leads the rise. In terms of decline, SMIC led the decline. CICC said that after the boom in 2024, it is expected that the inventory of the semiconductor industry will stabilize and the relationship between supply and demand will be more balanced in 2025. With the gradual landing of AI cloud and end demand, domestic semiconductor elements will usher in new development opportunities. In addition, the AI-changing tide has a pulling effect on the downstream demand of the semiconductor design sector, which is expected to accelerate the growth of the semiconductor design sector in 2025 and inject new vitality into the industry.According to the data released by Shanghai Steel Union, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate (in early trading) dropped by 100 yuan compared with the previous day, with an average price of 76,350 yuan/ton.Pan Xuan, Beijing Local Financial Administration: The total investable assets of households in Beijing's wealth management market are about 16 trillion yuan. Pan Xuan, deputy director of Beijing Local Financial Administration, pointed out in the global wealth management forum today that Beijing's wealth management industry has good basic conditions, huge market potential and strong demand, and has unique advantages in developing wealth management industry. Among them, on the supply side, the asset management scale of institutions such as bank wealth management, insurance asset management, Public Offering of Fund, private equity funds, trusts and brokerage asset management in Beijing exceeds 30 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 30% of the country; At the same time, the scale of private equity and venture capital management is also the first in the country. On the demand side, the total investable assets of households in Beijing are about 16 trillion yuan, and the number of high-net-worth families, ultra-high-net-worth families and international ultra-high-net-worth families ranks first in the country.

The 30-year main contract of treasury bond futures rose to 0.62%, which continued to hit a new high. In addition, the 10-year main contract rose by 0.37%, the 5-year main contract rose by 0.27%, and the 2-year main contract rose by 0.09%, which was another record.Chen Guo, China Securities: The 2025 policy will focus on expanding domestic demand and AI+ in all directions, and the Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Chen Guo, chief strategy officer of China Securities, said that the meeting had seven highlights, including clarifying the growth target and fiscal and monetary policy measures, expanding domestic demand in all directions as the top priority of the policy, focusing on "AI+" in science and technology, focusing on implementation of reform measures, paying attention to coping with external shocks in opening up, strengthening the expression of real estate policies, and increasing efforts to improve people's livelihood. Chen Guo said that further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts from the end of 2024 to 2025 are worth looking forward to, and the easing of the liquidity environment has become a market consensus. However, this does not mean that liquidity is rampant, because the growth of money supply in the scale of social financing still continues the requirement of matching the expected target of the overall price level of economic growth. Chen Guo believes that the 2025 policy will focus on expanding domestic demand and AI+ in an all-round way, and the strength and direction of the policy are in line with expectations. With the support of policy expectations and liquidity, it is expected that the market will continue to show the characteristics of volatility. From the perspective of investment strategy, Chen Guo suggested focusing on non-bank finance, real estate chain, consumer electronics, machinery, construction, building materials, steel, social services, catering chain and other sectors. In terms of theme, it is suggested to pay attention to investment opportunities such as "duality" and "two innovations", supply-side optimization, new quality productivity, market value management of state-owned enterprises and CSI A500 index.The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the 53rd consecutive trading day.

Beizheng 50 rose more than 1%, Huayang Racing Car had a daily limit of 30CM, and Ricky Zhizao, Fuheng New Materials and Bai Xinglong rose more than 10%.Huaan, AVIC, etc. lined up to enter the ranks of public offering warehousing logistics REITs. According to the announcement of AVIC Fund, the AVIC Yishang warehousing logistics REITs jointly built with ESR Group, the largest new economic real estate management company in the Asia-Pacific region, are being issued. This is the first REIT issued by ESR Group in China, and its infrastructure assets consist of three warehousing and logistics parks, namely, Phase I, Phase II and Phase III of Fulaide Kunshan Logistics Park. According to the data of wind, up to now, Huaxia Fund, harvest fund, Huatai Securities Asset Management, Hongtu Innovation Fund and CICC Fund all have a listed warehousing and logistics REIT, while Huaan Waigaoqiao REIT, which was established on December 12th, has not been listed yet. In addition, Huaxia Fund and southern fund's newly declared warehousing logistics REIT are in the inquiry stage, while Huitianfu's warehousing logistics REIT is in the feedback stage.Chen Guo, China Securities: The 2025 policy will focus on expanding domestic demand and AI+ in all directions, and the Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Chen Guo, chief strategy officer of China Securities, said that the meeting had seven highlights, including clarifying the growth target and fiscal and monetary policy measures, expanding domestic demand in all directions as the top priority of the policy, focusing on "AI+" in science and technology, focusing on implementation of reform measures, paying attention to coping with external shocks in opening up, strengthening the expression of real estate policies, and increasing efforts to improve people's livelihood. Chen Guo said that further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts from the end of 2024 to 2025 are worth looking forward to, and the easing of the liquidity environment has become a market consensus. However, this does not mean that liquidity is rampant, because the growth of money supply in the scale of social financing still continues the requirement of matching the expected target of the overall price level of economic growth. Chen Guo believes that the 2025 policy will focus on expanding domestic demand and AI+ in an all-round way, and the strength and direction of the policy are in line with expectations. With the support of policy expectations and liquidity, it is expected that the market will continue to show the characteristics of volatility. From the perspective of investment strategy, Chen Guo suggested focusing on non-bank finance, real estate chain, consumer electronics, machinery, construction, building materials, steel, social services, catering chain and other sectors. In terms of theme, it is suggested to pay attention to investment opportunities such as "duality" and "two innovations", supply-side optimization, new quality productivity, market value management of state-owned enterprises and CSI A500 index.